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The Prognosticator 2011 Checklist

TFW readers with long(ish) memories might recall that a year ago, at the start of the decade, I made some predictions for the next ten years covering a range of topics including politics, science, technology and for The FAT Website itself.  You can read that full blog here.

Anyway, we’re 1/10th of the way to 2020 and I thought it might be interesting to do a progress check on how I’m going.

The FAT Website

1.  The FAT Website will have 3D visuals.
PREDICTION TRACKER: Not so far.  Which is not to say that it couldn’t happen.  The biggest most obvious hurdle is that no one has a 3D monitor to view the website.  Not looking good.

2.  The FAT Website will still be running.
PREDICTION TRACKER: On track.  In fact, the website is currently attracting more hits than it has in a long time (over 300 unique visitors checked out the site at least twice a week in 2010 according to Google Analytics).

3. Four TFW bloggers will get married.
PREDICTION TRACKER: On track.  Dan Tan Bell got married in 2010 and Pat Fat Perraton is engaged and due to get married.  That puts me halfway to target with eight years to go.

Note:  I decided to remove the prediction for whether there’d be a divorce since thats a bit negative really.


1.  Australia will have a female prime minister.
PREDICTION TRACKER: Success! Julia Gillard stabbed her own party leader Kevin Rudd in the back and assumed the mantle of Prime Minister of Australia without an election.  Good job!

2.  Australia won’t legalize gay marriage.
PREDICTION TRACKER:  On track. The majority of Australians want legalized gay marriage but neither political party has the balls to push through the legislation.

3.  Australia will get a mandatory Internet censorship filter.
PREDICTION TRACKER: Not so far. Both parties have talked about it but risk a huge public backlash.  Labor probably would’ve pushed ahead with it but they needed to shelve it when they realised they had a close election on their hands.  Will surely come up again over the next nine years.

4.  Australia will get an R-18 video game rating.
PREDICTION TRACKER:  Not so far. Hey, South Australian Labor Party:  thanks a lot, assholes!

5.  Barack Obama to win a second term as American President.
PREDICTION TRACKER:  On track. He’s had a tough two years in office but we’re yet to see a realistic contender in the Republican party.  Sarah Palin gets all the attention but polling still tells us that Obama would beat her handily if it came down to the two of them.

6.  Labor Party will be in power in the UK in 2020.
PREDICTION TRACKER:  Not so far. Well, the fact that they just got voted out this year sets back the likelihood of this happening.

Health & Science

1.  Scientists will successfully clone a human being.
PREDICTION TRACKER: Not so far. I don’t know what crackpot science fiction movie I was watching when I wrote this but I’m 99% sure there isn’t a remote chance of this happening.

2.  We will still be globally dependant on fossil fuels by 2020.
PREDICTION TRACKER: On track. Not that I expected this to change in a year but so far it looks to be a pretty safe bet.

3.  Scientists will develop a vaccine for HIV.
PREDICTION TRACKER: Not so far. America’s recent economic woes set back this prediction significantly as they were the country most likely to make progress towards this milestone.


1.  A team other than Chelsea, Manchester United or Arsenal will win the English Premiere League.
PREDICTION TRACKER: Not so far. 2010/11 season = same old shit.

2.  A man will run 100 metres in under 9.5 seconds.
PREDICTION TRACKER: Not so far . When does Ussain Bolt run again?

3.  Scotland will qualify for a World Cup.
PREDICTION TRACKER: Not so far. But lets wait and see how they get on.

Media & Technology

1.  3D Televisions will become the standard.
PREDICTION TRACKER: Not so far. I don’t really expect this to happen for another five years or so, to be fair.

2.  Most people will download movies instead of purchasing them in a store.
PREDICTION TRACKER: On track. The rise in popularity of Netflix and AppleTV etc. suggests this should come true fairly soon.

3.  The Audio CD will cease production this decade.
PREDICTION TRACKER: Not so far. I might have got this one wrong actually because the death of the audio CD suggests the complete absense of music in a physical retail presence.

4.  Someone will make a film that costs half a billion dollars to produce ($US).
PREDICTION TRACKER: On track. Tangled by Disney cost $270 million dollars to make.  The Hobbit costs $500 million but is actually two films.  But I’m confident we’ll get there.

5.  Facebook will still be the most popular social networking site by 2020.
PREDICTION TRACKER: On track. No sign of any competition so far.

About Edo

Edo currently lives in Australia where he spends his time playing video games and enjoying his wife's cooking.

One comment

  1. This is my first time here, and I must say I’m impressed. However, HIV prevention made major strives this year. The first of which was a bunch of women willing to bone men with HIV in a clinical trial – holy shit, the economy is bad. The second was we have finally determined that HIV has three anti-BFFs who could be attracted to one another given the right cocktails.

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