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The Prognosticator 2014 Checklist

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TFW readers with long(ish) memories might recall that at the start of the decade, I made some predictions for the next ten years covering a range of topics including politics, science, technology and for The FAT Website itself.  You can read that full blog here.

We’re 4/10th of the way to 2020 and its time for a check-in.  As you’ll see, I’ve gotten a few more right.  Other predictions…not looking so good.

The FAT Website

1.  The FAT Website will have 3D visuals.
PREDICTION TRACKER: Not so far.  Not even close.  Although The FAT Website had its first layout update in four years, I’m pretty sure this one is not going to happen :(

tfwscreenshot

2.  The FAT Website will still be running.
PREDICTION TRACKER: On track.  Our fourteenth year, baby.

3. Four TFW bloggers will get married.
PREDICTION TRACKER: Not so far.  Slight shift towards ‘yes’ with Matt getting engaged.  Need another couple to step up their game.

Politics

jgill

4.  Australia will have a female prime minister.
PREDICTION TRACKER: CORRECT Julia Gillard stabbed her own party leader Kevin Rudd in the back and assumed the mantle of Prime Minister of Australia without an election.  Good job!  She has since been booted out in an act of Kevenge and then Rudd went on to get thrashed at the last election by Tony Abbott.  Nice one Labor.

5.  Australia won’t legalize gay marriage.
PREDICTION TRACKER:  Not so far.  I believe we will have a conservative government for at least another term so I think this prediction will (sadly) hold true.

6.  Australia will get a mandatory Internet censorship filter.
PREDICTION TRACKER: Not so far. Senator Conroy’s net filter was crushed and happily, the Libs don’t look like bringing it back!

7.  Australia will get an R-18 video game rating.
PREDICTION TRACKER:  CORRECT  Australia finally joined the 21st Century and there is an R-18 rating as of 2013.  Although in practise, we still have plenty of stuff censored.  Booo!

obamawins

8.  Barack Obama to win a second term as American President.
PREDICTION TRACKER:  CORRECT In 2011 I said Obama would “likely be up against Romney and that he would beat him”.  I was right.  Four more years!  I feel like updating this one with the super safe additional prediction that Hillary Clinton will be the next president but I think everybody already knows that.

***New prediction:  Hillary Clinton will win the 2016 US Presidential Election***

9.  Labor Party will be in power in the UK in 2020.
PREDICTION TRACKER:  Not so farI haven’t really followed British politics in a while and have no idea how David Cameron is doing these days.

Health & Science

10.  Scientists will successfully clone a human being.
PREDICTION TRACKER: Not so far. I don’t know what crackpot science fiction movie I was watching when I wrote this but I’m 99% sure there isn’t a remote chance of this happening.

11.  We will still be globally dependent on fossil fuels by 2020.
PREDICTION TRACKER: On track.  A pretty safe bet to make in retrospect.

12.  Scientists will develop a vaccine for HIV.
PREDICTION TRACKER: Not so far. Although every month Reddit claims there is some amazing new clinical trial that will change everything.

Sports

raheemsterling

13.  A team other than Chelsea, Manchester United or Arsenal will win the English Premiere League.
PREDICTION TRACKER: CORRECT Not only was I correct with Man City winning the title, but now Liverpool look pretty good value for becoming a non-Chelsea/Man Utd/Arsenal team to win the title.  How things change!

bolt

14.  A man will run 100 metres in under 9.5 seconds.
PREDICTION TRACKER: Not so far.  I think Bolt is winding down nowadays so this is looking like a bit of a long shot.

15.  Scotland will qualify for a World Cup.
PREDICTION TRACKER: Not so far. Only the Russian World Cup in 2018 left for this to happen :(

Media & Technology

16.  3D Televisions will become the standard.
PREDICTION TRACKER: Not so far.  3D movies are still around but no one I know has a 3D TV.  Seems like a bit of a dumb prediction in retrospect.

17.  Most people will download movies instead of purchasing them in a store.
PREDICTION TRACKER: On track. This is kind of idiotic but I can’t remember which website I was using that tracks digital download vs physical sales.  I’m pretty sure this has already happened but I can’t find a website to confirm.

cdstore

18.  The Audio CD will cease production this decade.
PREDICTION TRACKER: Not so far. My local JB HiFi still has a CD section and its still surprisingly large 0_o

starwarsposter

19.  Someone will make a film that costs half a billion dollars to produce ($US).
PREDICTION TRACKER: On track. I’m actually surprised this hasn’t happened yet but I feel pretty confident that Star Wars or Avatar 2 should see this milestone crossed.

20.  Facebook will still be the most popular social networking site by 2020.
PREDICTION TRACKER: On track. Is it me or was there no new social media websites last year?

Scorecard

20 Predictions made

I’m still on track to get about half of these predictions correct and although I haven’t got anything conclusively wrong, its not looking great for getting much more than 50%.

4 Correct

0 Wrong

5 On Track

11 Not So Far

Updates from previous years

Prognosticator Checklist 2013

Prognosticator Checklist 2012

Prognosticator Checklist 2011

Original Predictions from 2010

About Edo

Edo currently lives in Australia where he spends his time playing video games and enjoying his wife's cooking.

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