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The Prognosticator 2016 Checklist


TFW readers with long(ish) memories might recall that at the start of the decade, I made some predictions for the next ten years covering a range of topics including politics, science, technology and for The FAT Website itself.  You can read that full blog here.

We’re over halfway through the decade and its time for a check-in.  As you’ll see, I’ve gotten a few more right.  Other predictions…not looking so good.

The FAT Website

1.  The FAT Website will have 3D visuals.

PREDICTION TRACKER: Not so far.  Not even close.  This prediction was a terrible idea. :(


2.  The FAT Website will still be running.
PREDICTION TRACKER: On track.  Our sixteenth year, baby.

3. Four TFW bloggers will get married.
PREDICTION TRACKER: On track.  Matt, Dan and Angela married.  Pat and Sam are engaged.  This prediction will become correct in June this year.



4.  Australia will have a female prime minister.
PREDICTION TRACKER: CORRECT Julia Gillard stabbed her own party leader Kevin Rudd in the back and assumed the mantle of Prime Minister of Australia without an election.  Good job!  She has since been booted out in an act of Kevenge and then Rudd went on to get thrashed at the last election by Tony Abbott.  Nice one Labor.

5.  Australia won’t legalize marriage equality.
PREDICTION TRACKER:  Not so far.  After Tony Abbott was ousted in favour of Malcolm Turnbull, marriage equality has a chance of happening now.

6.  Australia will get a mandatory Internet censorship filter.
PREDICTION TRACKER: Not so far. Kind of a poisoned chalice really.  We didn’t get an internet filter but instead we got mandatory metadata retention.

7.  Australia will get an R-18 video game rating.
PREDICTION TRACKER:  CORRECT  Australia finally joined the 21st Century and there is an R-18 rating as of 2013.  Although in practise, we still have plenty of stuff censored.  Booo!


8.  Barack Obama to win a second term as American President.
PREDICTION TRACKER:  CORRECT In 2011 I said Obama would “likely be up against Romney and that he would beat him”.  I was right.  Four more years!  I feel like updating this one with the super safe additional prediction that Hillary Clinton will be the next president but I think everybody already knows that.

8b.  ***New prediction:  Hillary Clinton will win the 2016 US Presidential Election***

PREDICTION TRACKER:  Who the hell knows 2016 is shaping up to be one of the most unpredictable American elections in recent memory.  Hillary Clinton should’ve been the safe bet but Bernie Sanders and Donald Trump are unpredictable wild cards.

9.  Labor Party will be in power in the UK in 2020.
PREDICTION TRACKER:  INCORRECT.  Despite polling suggesting a close election in 2015, the phenomenon known as ‘shy Tories’ (basically people who are too ashamed to admit they are conservative) saw the Conservatives sweep back into power.

Health & Science

10.  Scientists will successfully clone a human being.
PREDICTION TRACKER: Not so far. I don’t know what crackpot science fiction movie I was watching when I wrote this but I’m 99% sure there isn’t a remote chance of this happening.

11.  We will still be globally dependent on fossil fuels by 2020.
PREDICTION TRACKER: On track.  A pretty safe bet to make in retrospect.  Although the needle is gradually moving towards renewable energy.  Europe and America both making strides on this one.  Australia on the other hand is going all in on fossil fuels.  Thanks Liberals!

12.  Scientists will develop a vaccine for HIV.
PREDICTION TRACKER: Not so far. Although every month Reddit claims there is some amazing new clinical trial that will change everything.



13.  A team other than Chelsea, Manchester United or Arsenal will win the English Premiere League.
PREDICTION TRACKER: CORRECT Not only was I correct with Man City winning the title, but its January and Leicester City is top of the table.  What on Earth 0_o


14.  A man will run 100 metres in under 9.5 seconds.
PREDICTION TRACKER: Not so far.  I think Bolt is winding down nowadays so this is looking like a bit of a long shot.  Still, there’s an Olympics on this year so the stage is set.

15.  Scotland will qualify for a World Cup.
PREDICTION TRACKER: INCORRECT. Scotland failed to qualify :(

Media & Technology

16.  3D Televisions will become the standard.
PREDICTION TRACKER: INCORRECT.  Pretty happy to lock this one in as incorrect.  3DTV is on life support.

17.  Most people will download movies instead of purchasing them in a store.
PREDICTION TRACKER: CORRECT. Thanks to the popularity of On Demand services like Netflix and Hulu, this came true.


18.  The Audio CD will cease production this decade.
PREDICTION TRACKER: Not so far. My local JB HiFi still has a CD section and its still surprisingly large 0_o


19.  Someone will make a film that costs half a billion dollars to produce ($US).
PREDICTION TRACKER: Not So Far. It still hasn’t happened.  I thought for sure Star Wars or Avatar would accomplish this and yet…it still hasn’t happened.

20.  Facebook will still be the most popular social networking site by 2020.
PREDICTION TRACKER: On track. Looks pretty good.


20 Predictions made

I’m still on track to get about half of these predictions correct and although I haven’t got anything conclusively wrong, its not looking great for getting much more than 50%.

5 Correct

3 Incorrect

5 On Track

7 Not So Far

Updates from previous years

Prognosticator Checklist 2015

Prognosticator Checklist 2014

Prognosticator Checklist 2013

Prognosticator Checklist 2012

Prognosticator Checklist 2011

Original Predictions from 2010

About Edo

Edo currently lives in Australia where he spends his time playing video games and enjoying his wife's cooking.

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