TFW readers with long(ish) memories might recall that at the start of the decade, I made some predictions for the next ten years covering a range of topics including politics, science, technology and for The FAT Website itself. You can read that full blog here.
We’re half way to 2020 and its time for a check-in. As you’ll see, I’ve gotten a few more right. Other predictions…not looking so good.
The FAT Website
1. The FAT Website will have 3D visuals.
PREDICTION TRACKER: Not so far. Not even close. Although The FAT Website had its first layout update in four years, I’m pretty sure this one is not going to happen
2. The FAT Website will still be running.
PREDICTION TRACKER: On track. Our fifteenth year, baby.
3. Four TFW bloggers will get married.
PREDICTION TRACKER: On track. Matt and Dan married. Angela engaged. Looking good!
4. Australia will have a female prime minister.
PREDICTION TRACKER: CORRECT Julia Gillard stabbed her own party leader Kevin Rudd in the back and assumed the mantle of Prime Minister of Australia without an election. Good job! She has since been booted out in an act of Kevenge and then Rudd went on to get thrashed at the last election by Tony Abbott. Nice one Labor.
5. Australia won’t legalize gay marriage.
PREDICTION TRACKER: Not so far. I believe we will have a conservative government for at least another term so I think this prediction will (sadly) hold true.
6. Australia will get a mandatory Internet censorship filter.
PREDICTION TRACKER: Not so far. Kind of a poisoned chalice really. We didn’t get an internet filter but instead we got mandatory metadata retention.
7. Australia will get an R-18 video game rating.
PREDICTION TRACKER: CORRECT Australia finally joined the 21st Century and there is an R-18 rating as of 2013. Although in practise, we still have plenty of stuff censored. Booo!
8. Barack Obama to win a second term as American President.
PREDICTION TRACKER: CORRECT In 2011 I said Obama would “likely be up against Romney and that he would beat him”. I was right. Four more years! I feel like updating this one with the super safe additional prediction that Hillary Clinton will be the next president but I think everybody already knows that.
***New prediction: Hillary Clinton will win the 2016 US Presidential Election***
9. Labor Party will be in power in the UK in 2020.
PREDICTION TRACKER: Not so far. There’s an election this year and Labor look a reasonable chance to win according to the polls.
Health & Science
10. Scientists will successfully clone a human being.
PREDICTION TRACKER: Not so far. I don’t know what crackpot science fiction movie I was watching when I wrote this but I’m 99% sure there isn’t a remote chance of this happening.
11. We will still be globally dependent on fossil fuels by 2020.
PREDICTION TRACKER: On track. A pretty safe bet to make in retrospect. Although the needle is gradually moving towards renewable energy. Europe and America both making strides on this one. Australia on the other hand is going all in on fossil fuels. Thanks Tony Abbott!
12. Scientists will develop a vaccine for HIV.
PREDICTION TRACKER: Not so far. Although every month Reddit claims there is some amazing new clinical trial that will change everything.
13. A team other than Chelsea, Manchester United or Arsenal will win the English Premiere League.
PREDICTION TRACKER: CORRECT Not only was I correct with Man City winning the title, but there’s a whole bunch of teams like Spurs and Southampton on the rise. Meanwhile, Manchester United in life after Alex Ferguson are total poo.
14. A man will run 100 metres in under 9.5 seconds.
PREDICTION TRACKER: Not so far. I think Bolt is winding down nowadays so this is looking like a bit of a long shot.
15. Scotland will qualify for a World Cup.
PREDICTION TRACKER: Not so far. Only the Russian World Cup in 2018 and the group Scotland drew was super hard
Media & Technology
16. 3D Televisions will become the standard.
PREDICTION TRACKER: WRONG. Pretty happy to lock this one in as incorrect. 3DTV is on life support.
17. Most people will download movies instead of purchasing them in a store.
PREDICTION TRACKER: On track. Has pretty much happened thanks to the prevalence of On Demand services like Netflix and Hulu.
18. The Audio CD will cease production this decade.
PREDICTION TRACKER: Not so far. My local JB HiFi still has a CD section and its still surprisingly large 0_o
19. Someone will make a film that costs half a billion dollars to produce ($US).
PREDICTION TRACKER: Unclear. It still hasn’t happened. I thought for sure Star Wars or Avatar would accomplish this and yet…it still hasn’t happened.
20. Facebook will still be the most popular social networking site by 2020.
PREDICTION TRACKER: On track. Looks pretty good.
20 Predictions made
I’m still on track to get about half of these predictions correct and although I haven’t got anything conclusively wrong, its not looking great for getting much more than 50%.
5 On Track
10 Not So Far
Updates from previous years