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The Prognosticator 2013 Checklist

TFW readers with long(ish) memories might recall that at the start of the decade, I made some predictions for the next ten years covering a range of topics including politics, science, technology and for The FAT Website itself.  You can read that full blog here.

We’re 3/10th of the way to 2020 and its time for a check-in.  As you’ll see, I’ve gotten a few more right.  Other predictions…not looking so good.

The FAT Website

1.  The FAT Website will have 3D visuals.
PREDICTION TRACKER: Not so far.  Not even close.  And with the entertainment industry seemingly less focussed on 3DTV and looking forward to 4k resolution instead, this isn’t looking good right now.

2.  The FAT Website will still be running.
PREDICTION TRACKER: On track.  Our thirteenth year, baby.

3. Four TFW bloggers will get married.
PREDICTION TRACKER: Not so far.  Yeah…no one looks like they’re in any great hurry to join the club.


4.  Australia will have a female prime minister.
PREDICTION TRACKER: CORRECT Julia Gillard stabbed her own party leader Kevin Rudd in the back and assumed the mantle of Prime Minister of Australia without an election.  Good job!

5.  Australia won’t legalize gay marriage.
PREDICTION TRACKER:  Not so far.  Last year it looked like the country was heading towards legalized gay marriage but 2013 saw Liberals reclaim Queensland and the political discourse on a federal level was mostly about Tony Abbott’s hilariously inaccurate carbon tax predictions.

6.  Australia will get a mandatory Internet censorship filter.
PREDICTION TRACKER: Not so far. In November of 2012, Information Minister Stephen Conroy’s mandatory Internet filter was defeated.  Happy to be wrong on this one.

7.  Australia will get an R-18 video game rating.
PREDICTION TRACKER:  CORRECT  Australia finally joined the 21st Century and as of 3 days ago, there is now an R-18 rating.  Woohoo!

8.  Barack Obama to win a second term as American President.
PREDICTION TRACKER:  CORRECT Last year I said Obama would “likely be up against Romney and that he would beat him”.  I was right.  Four more years!

9.  Labor Party will be in power in the UK in 2020.
PREDICTION TRACKER:  Not so far.Having said that, last year David Cameron and the Tories were doing okay in opinion polls.  Nowadays, they slightly favour Ed Miliband and Labour.

Health & Science

10.  Scientists will successfully clone a human being.
PREDICTION TRACKER: Not so far. I don’t know what crackpot science fiction movie I was watching when I wrote this but I’m 99% sure there isn’t a remote chance of this happening.

11.  We will still be globally dependant on fossil fuels by 2020.
PREDICTION TRACKER: On track. Not that I expected this to change in a year but so far it looks to be a pretty safe bet.

12.  Scientists will develop a vaccine for HIV.
PREDICTION TRACKER: Not so far. America’s recent economic woes set back this prediction significantly as they were the country most likely to make progress towards this milestone.


13.  A team other than Chelsea, Manchester United or Arsenal will win the English Premiere League.
PREDICTION TRACKER: CORRECT Manchester City won the EPL in dramatic fashion on the last day of the competition coming from a goal down in injury time to hold off Manchester United.  They are now the fifth team to win the EPL since its inception.

14.  A man will run 100 metres in under 9.5 seconds.
PREDICTION TRACKER: Not so far.  Although Usain Bolt won gold at the Olympics, he didn’t trouble his own World Record time.

15.  Scotland will qualify for a World Cup.
PREDICTION TRACKER: Not so far. This is about as likely as my human cloning prediction coming true.

Media & Technology

16.  3D Televisions will become the standard.
PREDICTION TRACKER: Not so far.  3DTV made very little headway in 2012 and thanks to the 48fps technology used in The Hobbit, current BluRay players aren’t capable of replicating the experience in home entertainment units.  Not looking good.

17.  Most people will download movies instead of purchasing them in a store.
PREDICTION TRACKER: On track. The rise in popularity of Netflix and AppleTV etc. suggests this should come true fairly soon.  Blockbuster Video is all but dead in Australia.

18.  The Audio CD will cease production this decade.
PREDICTION TRACKER: Not so far. I might have got this one wrong actually because the death of the audio CD suggests the complete absense of music in a physical retail presence.

19.  Someone will make a film that costs half a billion dollars to produce ($US).
PREDICTION TRACKER: On track. John Carter cost $300 million to produce but its shitty performance at the box office might make studios a bit reluctant to drop this kind of money in the next couple of years.  I think my prediction will ultimately be proven correct by the next installment of Star Wars.

20.  Facebook will still be the most popular social networking site by 2020.
PREDICTION TRACKER: On track. Lol, Myspace Revival.


20 Predictions made

4 Correct

0 Wrong

5 On Track

11 Not So Far

About Edo

Edo currently lives in Australia where he spends his time playing video games and enjoying his wife's cooking.

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