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The Prognosticator 2012 Checklist

TFW readers with long(ish) memories might recall that at the start of the decade, I made some predictions for the next ten years covering a range of topics including politics, science, technology and for The FAT Website itself.  You can read that full blog here.

Anyway, we’re 2/10th of the way to 2020 and I thought it might be interesting to do a progress check on how I’m going.

The FAT Website

1.  The FAT Website will have 3D visuals.
PREDICTION TRACKER: Not so far.  However, I have viewed the website in 3D on my Nintendo 3DS.  The device also allows you to capture 3D photos and videos so I should have this covered by next year.

2.  The FAT Website will still be running.
PREDICTION TRACKER: On track.  Our twelth year, baby.

3. Four TFW bloggers will get married.
PREDICTION TRACKER: Not so far.  Just me and Dan so far. Most of the TFW bloggers still seem happy to go out partying and bringing home a different woman every other night.  And not blogging.


1.  Australia will have a female prime minister.
PREDICTION TRACKER: Success! Julia Gillard stabbed her own party leader Kevin Rudd in the back and assumed the mantle of Prime Minister of Australia without an election.  Good job!

2.  Australia won’t legalize gay marriage.
PREDICTION TRACKER:  Probably not. I’m happy to be wrong on this one.  2011 saw Australia make pretty significant strides towards legalized gay marriage.  The Australian Labor Party have decided to throw their support behind gay marriage and Queensland Parliament passed a same sex civil union bill.  Seems like it should be only a matter of time.

3.  Australia will get a mandatory Internet censorship filter.
PREDICTION TRACKER: Not so far. Wasn’t a major political issue in Australia in 2012.  Obviously a big deal in America at the moment with the SOPA act which has also been stopped for now.

4.  Australia will get an R-18 video game rating.

5.  Barack Obama to win a second term as American President.
PREDICTION TRACKER:  On track. The Republican Primaries have been a goddamn train wreck and we’re down to Gingrich and Romney.  It’ll probably be Romney and he almost certainly won’t win.

6.  Labor Party will be in power in the UK in 2020.
PREDICTION TRACKER:  Not so far. David Cameron is on a 22 month high in the polls.

Health & Science

1.  Scientists will successfully clone a human being.
PREDICTION TRACKER: Not so far. I don’t know what crackpot science fiction movie I was watching when I wrote this but I’m 99% sure there isn’t a remote chance of this happening.

2.  We will still be globally dependant on fossil fuels by 2020.
PREDICTION TRACKER: On track. Not that I expected this to change in a year but so far it looks to be a pretty safe bet.

3.  Scientists will develop a vaccine for HIV.
PREDICTION TRACKER: Not so far. America’s recent economic woes set back this prediction significantly as they were the country most likely to make progress towards this milestone.


1.  A team other than Chelsea, Manchester United or Arsenal will win the English Premiere League.
PREDICTION TRACKER: On track. Manchester City look well on track to become the first non Manchester United/Chelsea/Arsenal team to win the Premiere League in the modern era.  If you have millions of dollars to buy a bunch of awesome players, dreams can come true.

2.  A man will run 100 metres in under 9.5 seconds.
PREDICTION TRACKER: Not so far.  Although the Olympics are on this year so lets see.

3.  Scotland will qualify for a World Cup.
PREDICTION TRACKER: Not so far. But lets wait and see how they get on.

Media & Technology

1.  3D Televisions will become the standard.
PREDICTION TRACKER: Not so far.  They’re pretty cheap and I now know two people that own them.  But they are still nowhere near mainstream and the popularity of 3D movies seems to be on the wane.

2.  Most people will download movies instead of purchasing them in a store.
PREDICTION TRACKER: On track. The rise in popularity of Netflix and AppleTV etc. suggests this should come true fairly soon.  Blockbuster Video is all but dead in Australia.

3.  The Audio CD will cease production this decade.
PREDICTION TRACKER: Not so far. I might have got this one wrong actually because the death of the audio CD suggests the complete absense of music in a physical retail presence.

4.  Someone will make a film that costs half a billion dollars to produce ($US).
PREDICTION TRACKER: On track. I know that Battleship is north of $200 million for the film alone.  With marketing and distribution, this might be the year that we get a $500 million dollar film.

5.  Facebook will still be the most popular social networking site by 2020.
PREDICTION TRACKER: On track. Lol, Google Plus.

About Edo

Edo currently lives in Australia where he spends his time playing video games and enjoying his wife's cooking.


  1. Lol, Google Plus.

  2. Don’t you guys both have Google Plus accounts? 😉

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